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Forecast to 2020 for selected jobs

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Forecast to 2020 for selected jobs

The forecasts were made using the Expert Modler feature in the SPSS (statistical) program. Based on a number of forecast methodologies, it picks the best one to fit the data. One of the key measures of fit is R-squared. R-squared shows the strenght of the relationship of the data - 1.0 would equate a perfect relationship and 0 would equal no relationship. R-squared is one way to test the model. However, a good R-squared does not, in all case signify the best fit for a model. Fore instance, if arriving at the best fit for the data, the model states that the r-squard value for postpersons is 85%, signifying a strong relationship. But if we were to predict using the r-squared figure alone it might indicate 200 postpersons by 2020 when there are currently 60 now. Given the reduction in mail, this foreceast would be unrealistic. This we also used exploratory data analysis to fit a trend to the data.

 

Actual Jobs

Forecast of Total Jobs

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Aeorbics/Fitness Instructor 48 50 51 52 53 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 63
Air Traffic Controller 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
Airline Passenger Agent 70 73 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60
Analytical Chemist 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Appraiser/Valuer 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Architect 60 53 61 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50
Architectural Assistant/Technician 48 47 55 55 56 56 57 57 58 58 59 60 61
Art Gallery/Museum Curator 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Artist 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19
Author 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Auto Body Worker 45 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 52
Baker Helper 19 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 1
Baker/Mixer 51 57 57 57 58 58 58 59 59 60 61 61 62
Bank Teller 134 117 104 105 105 95 87 84 80 73 67 63 58
Bar Porter 33 32 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 26 26 26 26
Barber/Hairdresser 203 192 194 194 195 195 196 197 198 198 199 199 200
Beautician 167 169 175 176 184 189 194 199 203 208 213 218 222
Biological Scientist 16 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24
Butcher 60 70 66 67 69 70 71 72 73 75 77 78 80
Cashier 591 634 640 644 650 656 662 668 672 680 686 692 700
Chef de Partie/Cook 664 656 665 668 671 674 677 680 683 686 689 692 695
Chemist (General) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Chiropractor 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9
Choreographer 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Civil Engineer 26 24 24 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27
Civil Engineering Technician 7 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3
Computer Programmer 47 47 47 48 49 50 51 52 54 55 56 57 57
Computer/Systems Analyst 217 217 224 230 237 243 250 256 263 269 276 282 289
Consultant, Business (General) 137 146 153 159 166 172 179 185 192 198 205 211 218
Coporate Secretary 140 96 86 75 69 67 69 75 84 96 111 129 149
Customs Officer 180 187 190 194 197 200 203 207 210 213 216 220 223
Dancer 11 12 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6
Dental Hygienist 33 37 36 39 39 40 41 42 43 43 44 45 46
Dentist 31 45 46 48 49 50 51 53 54 55 56 58 59
Dietitian 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
Doctor/Physician 127 142 138 141 144 147 151 154 157 160 163 167 170
Dolphin Trainer 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
Draughtsman 14 11 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 9
Economist 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Editor, Press/Radio/TV 0 0 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Electrical Engineer 43 54 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
Electrician (General) 302 299 304 308 313 318 322 327 331 336 341 345 350
Electronics Engineer (General) 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13
Executive Secretary/Personal Assistant 909 917 884 855 825 796 766 737 707 678 648 618 589
Farmer 77 77 77 77 77 78 78 79 79 80 81 82 83
Floral Arranger 21 15 18 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 12
Gardner 204 188 172 157 141 126 110 95 79 63 48 32 17
Horticulturist 18 16 15 14 13 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Hotel Receptionist/Cashier 125 122 123 122 122 122 122 122 122 122 121 121 121
Instrumentalist/Musician 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 47 47 47 47
Internal Auditor 61 68 86 88 90 92 95 97 99 101 104 106 108
Investment Officer 112 100 100 99 98 97 100 120 140 160 180 200 227
Jeweller 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8
Junior Secretary/Clerk 538 484 433 381 328 275 223 170 117 64 12 12 0
Land Surveyor 23 22 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 31
Landscape Gardener 414 435 454 473 493 512 531 551 570 589 608 628 647
Legal Secretary 184 170 140 145 150 155 160 165 171 176 181 185 190
Librarian 25 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31
Mason (Construction) 759 693 760 780 800 810 820 800 775 600 330 250 175
Mechanical Engineer 29 28 35 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 31 31 30
Medical Lab Technologist 41 50 41 42 43 45 47 48 50 52 54 58 60
Messenger, Porter 221 178 172 167 161 156 150 145 139 133 128 122 117
Meteorologists 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
Meter Reader 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Minister of Religion 78 79 78 77 75 73 72 69 67 65 63 61 60
Motor Cycle Mechanic 46 52 55 55 54 54 53 53 52 52 51 50 49
Motor Vehicle Tradesman-Mechanic 166 162 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 158 157 157
Nurse, Registered 461 559 498 502 524 546 568 590 624 648 670 675 680
Nursemaid/Nanny 162 163 167 172 176 180 185 189 194 198 202 207 211
Nursing Aids & Orderlies 384 457 468 479 490 502 513 524 535 546 557 569 580
Occupational Therapist 34 36 36 37 38 39 39 40 41 42 43 44 44
Pathologist/Botanist 5 8 9 11 13 14 16 18 19 21 23 25 26
Physiotherapist 45 46 43 44 45 47 48 50 51 52 54 55 57
Plumber, General 189 186 196 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 237 240
Policeman/Detective 340 368 380 380 379 378 377 376 375 375 374 374 373
Postman 68 66 66 60 54 48 42 34 28 22 16 13 11
Primary Education Teacher 420 422 400 404 409 413 418 422 426 431 435 439 444
Principal 51 51 49 49 49 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 51
Prison Officer 203 207 209 212 214 217 219 222 224 226 229 231 234
Psychologist 24 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 39
Radiologist 2 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Receptionist 396 403 424 426 427 429 431 433 435 437 439 442 445
Salesperson/Clerk - Retail 702 665 617 569 521 473 426 378 330 282 234 186 138
Secondary Education Teacher 327 321 321 324 327 331 334 337 339 341 343 347 350
Social Worker 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 44
Sous Chef/Second Chef 119 118 120 125 130 135 140 145 138 131 115 108 104
Sports Coach 37 40 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
Surgeon 13 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20
Telecommunications Engineer 18 30 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 30
Travel Agency Clerk 54 27 26 22 18 14 10 5 1 18 25 37 56
Underwriter 400 377 368 357 346 336 325 315 304 293 283 272 261
Veterinarian 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14
Waiter 908 886 835 831 827 823 820 816 812 808 803 802 800
Wine Steward/Bar Waiter 20 21 18 15 13 11 17 23 28 36 42 48 52

 

 
   
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